Tuesday, December 29, 2015

Economic Downturns I've Experienced and Witnessed

I got into Engineering school dewy-eyed about the promise of eternal employment and supernatural job satisfaction and fulfillment. That was in 1997.

I participated in the University's Cooperative Education Program that found me 4-months contract work after the completion of each 4-month study semester to get a taste of the employment market. I tasted the joy of making money and being a student who had minimal expenses, I was able to pay for my education and living expenses.

I had no trouble finding work between 1997 and the year 2000. But at the start of the year 2000, reality winked at me.  The technological giant Nortel Networks burped. It had acquired too many companies too fast and stock prices started sliding. In 8 months, the share price fell from roughly $125 to $10. I was shocked and thought - like many, many others - that it was a temporary event, and that Nortel would inevitably recover. This giant castle that was built in the clouds couldn't possibly come crashing down. But it did. And many were devastated. My devastation was only emotional and psychological. For others it was financial and professional. My personal banker lost her life savings because she didn't follow her own advice: Greedily, she put all her retirement money in tech stocks. All of it.
Closer to the epicenter, my ex-boss at Nortel who had only worked at Nortel all his working life (for 20+ years) was laid off, along with almost all the employees of Nortel.  I doubt he found another job in the same industry, if he did in fact decide to stay in the same city.

That calamity lasted for …. well, the hi-tech industry in Ottawa never recovered, actually. All that work migrated to India and China. All the classmates I graduated with, never had the chance to truly enter the industry because it collapsed before they could even get their first full-time job in it. Disastrous. And this disaster was completely Engineer-specific.

I moved Provinces to Oil & Gas country, but found work in the Municipal world which kept me safe from recessions. I still thought what had happened to me in Ottawa was a one-off, an exception rather than the rule. But I was wrong.

In 2004, round about the time my sibling graduated from his grueling engineering program at a prestigious university, the automotive industry in Ontario collapsed. Tens of thousands of people were without a job. For a second time, the hardest hit was taken by the engineers - because it was an engineer-centered industry. Suddenly I suspected there may be a pattern. People with automotive-specific skills were left utterly stranded. I didn't worry so much about the young and middle-aged people that had a chance to retrain themselves. What about the people nearing retirement, which included a huge baby-boomer population? They couldn't retrain, and they couldn't afford to retire. So what did they do? Move? Work at Walmart?


In 2008 the whole world sort-of collapsed. The souffle built by the lies of Wall Street and the Federal Reserve collapsed. Alberta went through a brief spell of mass unemployment and obscurity. Tens of thousands of people were laid off with no foreseeable hope in sight. But things did pick up eventually. All industries suffered: Housing, Financial and Engineering. Engineering was not immune.

And here we are in 2014, 2015. Oil prices have stayed steadily low for 2 years now. And there is no hope of any recovery in the oil and gas sector in Alberta. Russia predicts this spat of bad oil prices will last at least 7 years. So what do oil and gas industry people do? Retrain? Work at Starbucks for 7 years? Again, the downturn is Engineer-specific. Admin staff can work anywhere. HR can work anywhere. Marketing people can work anywhere. But Engineers are fucked. Proper fucked.

Still want to do engineering?

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